Thursday, September 27, 2012

I'm not finding comfort in the polls

Posted By on Thu, Sep 27, 2012 at 11:01 AM

The presidential polls are all over the lot right now; every time it looks as if a trend is developing, something else happens. This morning, Real Clear Politics is giving President Obama a poll average of plus 4 percent. But Rasmussen, which tracks likely voters, continues to show a much closer race - a tie, this morning.

Rasmussen does traditionally show Republicans doing better, so maybe that's why its numbers are out of line with those of other polls. But regardless, I had expected to see better numbers for Obama, given Mitt Romney's stunning comments about the attack on the Libyan consulate and the revelation of his opinion about Americans who get government benefits.

The poll numbers from the swing states have stronger numbers for Obama, but there's a problem in that. If Obama win the electoral college but loses the popular vote, or if he wins both but by razor-thin margins, he'll start his second term with a deeply divided nation and a deeply divided, and angry, Congress.

On this point, by the way, see EJ Dionne's Washington Post article, “Can This Election Settle Anything?”

"Obama's ability to govern in a second term," Dionne writes, "thus depends not simply on his own triumph but also on the decisive defeat of those who have been obstructing him. If he wins but they win, is there much chance that the obstruction will stop?"

Tags: , , , , ,

Comments (2)

Showing 1-2 of 2

Add a comment

Subscribe to this thread:
Showing 1-2 of 2

Add a comment

Latest in News Blog

More by Mary Anna Towler

  • The war on Earth
  • The war on Earth

    Despite the environmental history of their political party, Republican candidates are denying the need for strong climate-change efforts.
    • Apr 28, 2015
  • More and more theaters
  • More and more theaters

    Building or renovating performing arts venues is just the first step. To keep them going takes big endowments, ticket sales, fundraising.
    • Apr 21, 2015
  • More »

Browse Listings

Submit an event

© 2015 City Newspaper

Website powered by Foundation