A self-congratulatory competition amongst beautiful, overpaid grownups who play pretend probably doesn't affect you directly. For most of us, the Oscar-night answer to "Who are you wearing?" will be "I dunno; the tag fell off," and our escorts for that evening usually include Ben and Jerry. Its magnificent insignificance, however, should in no way hinder you from doing all you can to totally debase your co-workers in the Academy Awards office pool.

You're revolted by the doughnut shrapnel that sprays from their mouths as they congregate in the break room to analyze the box-office take every Monday morning, and you just know that egghead from Legal is nicking your opinions for his stupid movie blog. So while I'd never, ever, ever condone gambling, I really want you to win that kitty, and perhaps these Oscar musings will give you a little edge over your fellow employees. Besides, you wouldn't believe what those creeps say about you when you're not around.

Best Picture

It looks to be an eclectic field, with possible space for a little comedy ("Juno"), a gory musical ("Sweeney Todd"), a brutal Western ("No Country For Old Men"), and a ‘70s crime drama ("American Gangster"). The last couple years, though, have seen grittier films (i.e., "The Departed" and "Crash") walking off with the big prize, so expect a return to form for the starchy Academy when the Oscar goes to the sweeping historical romance "Atonement."

Best Director

Watch it be one of those years when the Best Director and the Best Picture don't align. The Coen brothers seem like the frontrunners for "No Country For Old Men," but keep an eye on Ridley Scott ("American Gangster") and Tim Burton ("Sweeney Todd"), as well as the mercurial Julian Schnabel ("The Diving Bell and the Butterfly") and back-from-the-dead Paul Thomas Anderson ("There Will Be Blood").

Best Actor

The usual names are being bandied about: Tom Hanks ("Charlie Wilson's War"), Denzel Washington ("American Gangster"), George Clooney ("Michael Clayton"), Daniel Day-Lewis ("There Will Be Blood"), and Johnny Depp ("Sweeney Todd"). One slot ought to go to an up-and-comer like James McAvoy ("Atonement") or Emile Hirsch ("Into the Wild"), who should then try not to cry when Depp finally wins his Academy Award.

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett ruled in "Elizabeth: The Golden Age," and Julie Christie shattered as an Alzheimer's patient in "Away From Her." Keira Knightley will probably be hanging around for "Atonement," Ellen Page may get a nomination for "Juno," and Nicole Kidman could be recognized for "Margot at the Wedding." But the Oscar rightly belongs to Marion Cotillard for her astonishing portrayal of French chanteuse Edith Piaf in "La Vie En Rose."

Best Supporting Actor

There are the unsurprising (Tommy Lee Jones in "No Country For Old Men," Philip Seymour Hoffman in "Charlie Wilson's War," and Tom Wilkinson in "Michael Clayton") and there are the surprising (Casey Affleck in "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford" and Ethan Hawke in "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead"). Count on a two-horse race, though, between Javier Bardem ("No Country For Old Men") and Hal Holbrook ("Into the Wild"), and then count the younger man out: the Academy loves to honor bodies of work, and the octogenarian Holbrook's is ample.

Best Supporting Actress

Her bizarre yet spot-on performance as Bob Dylan in "I'm Not There" makes Cate Blanchett a lock, though among the spoilers are character actors extraordinaire Amy Ryan ("Gone Baby Gone") and Tilda Swinton ("Michael Clayton"). There are, of course, other spots to be filled, so designers should be clamoring to dress Jennifer Jason Leigh ("Margot at the Wedding"), Jennifer Garner ("Juno"), and maybe Catherine Keener ("Into the Wild").

Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 22, but the ceremony won't air until February 24 - yummy Jon Stewart hosts again, barring any problems with the writers strike - which should give you just enough time to forget that I said anything about any office pool, just in case I'm way off.

Ultimate Winter DVDs

Can't dig your way out to get to the theater? Netflix these films in which the snow steals the show.

"Snow Falling On Cedars" (1999): Winter has never looked more gorgeous than in this moving take on David Guterson's bestseller, starring Ethan Hawke as a heartbroken lawyer in the post-war Pacific Northwest.

"The Sweet Hereafter" (1997): Atom Egoyan adapts Russell Banks' novel about tragedy's aftermath on a tiny Canadian community and showcases a scene involving a school bus and an icy pond whose foreshadowing doesn't make it any less wrenching.

"Fargo" (1996): It's tempting to let the accents and the farce distract from the wintry desperation of the Coen brothers' look at a tame kidnapping plot gone appallingly wrong.

"A Simple Plan" (1998): Billy Bob Thornton and Bill Paxton helped director Sam Raimi jump to the A list with this tale of the bitter greed that ensues following the discovery of $4 million in a snowy plane crash. Dig Bridget Fonda as a pregnant Lady Macbeth.

"Better Off Dead" (1985): Lane wants to conquer the K-12 after losing his girlfriend to the captain of the ski team, and I want my two dollars!