The seat is wide open. Incumbent Republican Tom Reynolds announced last month that he is retiring.
The race is already attractive to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Although there are many potential candidates, Democrats will not hold a primary, said committee chair Chris Van Hollen during a Monday morning conference call.
If the DCCC gets involved, that means money and manpower for the Democratic candidate. Jon Powers has the early lead - and endorsements from most of the county Democratic committees in the district. But Alice Kryzan remains in the field and Jack Davis, an Erie County businessman who plans to self-finance his campaign, expects to make a third run for the seat.
In 2006, the committee pumped $22.6 million into 56 congressional campaigns. That's an average of $404,000 per seat.
The DCCC is already involved in two other local Congressional races The 25th and 29th districts are part of the committee's Red to Blue program. That means an influx of money and strategic support for candidates in those districts, with the goal of turning Republican seats Democratic.
In the 29th District, Democrat Eric Massa is challenging Republican Randy Kuhl, the incumbent.
In the 25th, Republican Jim Walsh is not seeking re-election. Democrat Dan Maffei is running for the seat. His potential Republican challengers include former Onondaga County Legislator Dale Sweetland and Macedon Assembly member Robert Oaks.
The DCCC is betting that many voters will associate Republican incumbents with the unpopular Bush administration - giving Democrats an edge.
"People are hungry for change," Van Hollen said.