BY JAMES NORMAN

Rochester's future success depends upon our ability to fashion and implement solutions to deal with the seemingly intractable problem of poverty and its attendant conditions. Otherwise, we will be mired in a pattern of urban decline that has a particularly devastating effect on communities that have experienced a major loss of manufacturing jobs. All is not yet hopeless, but we desperately need the will and commitment to make a difference.

Rochester and its environs provide a good living for those with means. We have many leading institutions of higher education, world-class health care access, a wide range of cultural outlets, a relatively stable and affordable housing market, plentiful recreational options, and a diversifying job market - though we are beginning to see local unemployment levels that we never saw during the recessions of the last three decades.

However, the "good life" is not being experienced by the nearly 30 percent of Rochester's population who are low-income, many of whom live in highly concentrated, poverty census tracks. Over 40 percent of Rochester's children live in poverty. Eighty percent of the school district's students qualify for free or reduced-priced meals. Equally alarming is the 40 percent high-school graduation rate.

The city's median household income of $28,000 is more than $20,000 less than that of the county's median. And unemployment within the inner city is two to three times higher than the official 8 percent rate.

I could go on, but I hope that you get the point that these conditions provide fertile ground for the underground economy, the drug trade, and related crime and violence. As I see it, it's in everyone's best interest that we commit to reducing the unacceptable level of economic inequality which weakens our overall community.

Social research tells us that, collectively, the three greatest predictors of poverty are educational level, gender, and race or ethnicity. That being the case, we can conclude that the achievement of positive social outcomes is a tremendous challenge for minority-group females who have low educational achievement. We treat this problem by providing welfare; and we treat the under-achieving male side of the equation by providing prison cells.

There is an undeniably strong correlation between educational level and income. While the linkage doesn't pertain to every individual situation, it does apply across the board. So if I had a magic wand and could make one wish for an improved state of equality for Rochester 25 years hence, I would wave the wand in the direction of education.

The clear message received from community dialogues on poverty, conducted by ABC in 1995 and in 2000, was that low-income people need work that pays - enough to have adequate housing, adequate nutrition, transportation, child care, etc. This same message was the Number 1priority for action outlined in the national summary document for similar dialogues held across the nation.

State Labor Department data show that manufacturing employment - which comprised 38 percent of our region's employment in 1970 - comprises 15 percent of today's jobs, with a projected decline to 10 percent by 2016. Therefore, we must not lose sight of the reality that today's manufacturing jobs require different skills than those previously required.

Our workforce development efforts need to focus on strengthening the connection between city residents and (current and future) job opportunities. In my view, this involves early intervention that should begin before kindergarten. We need to ensure the continuous availability of high-quality pre-school education for all children, especially those from low-income homes. Research studies show that these programs provide many positive societal benefits, including improved educational outcomes. Such programs can also double as child-care options for parents who are pursuing an education.

We need to automatically index the minimum wage to average wages on an annual basis, as a way to make work pay. Alternatively, we could support an expansion of the jobs covered by living-wage laws. Let us strive to banish the phrase "working poor."

Through a concerted community effort to ensure the availability of child care, the expansion of employment opportunities that pay decent wages, and the provision of a head start for our children, we will plant the seeds that will yield higher graduation rates and a better prepared and more productive workforce. If we can just accomplish these three things, 25 years from now, our downward spiral will surely have been reversed.

James Norman is president and CEO of Action for a Better Community. A native of Augusta, Georgia, he was Deputy Director for Administration for the Michigan Department of Labor before moving to Rochester in 1992 to lead ABC.