Watch out for that other shoe.  

Governor David Paterson has, for the last few months, repeated dire warnings about the state's budget problems - saying that over the next two years, there's a $15-billion hole to plug. The New York Times reports today that Paterson will balance the budget by raising billions of dollars through taxes and fees, and that it will contain some significant cuts - including cuts to education, municipal, and health-care aid.

Paterson will reveal his 2009-2010 budget proposal tomorrow.

"We're anticipating a 20-percent cut over the next two years," Mayor Bob Duffy said on Monday. "Here is where all of the constituencies will be lobbying, trying to save what's theirs, when we should all be locking arms and trying to figure out ways we can save money."

But will legislators go along with Paterson's plan? Already little fiefdoms are forming, and it looks like they're preparing for all-out-war.

Late last month, Paterson sent a letter to school superintendents, warning them that he planned to limit increases in education funding. Almost immediately, school boards associations, teachers unions, and activist organizations began lobbying against any reduction.

Public employees unions have been vocal. The New York Times reports that Paterson may propose cuts to state worker benefits, which will almost certainly open a rift between the governor and the unions.

Today, Paterson signed a law that directs state agencies to collect cigarette taxes from stores owned by Native- Americans. When the state tried that a decade ago, protests broke out on the reservations.

If the governor follows through with plans to push an expanded bottle deposit bill, he can expect to fight with bottlers and beverage distributors, as well as the legislators sympathetic to them. While environmentalists would support him on this measure, he'll face their wrath if he follows through with plans to use money from the state Environmental Protection Fund for general purposes.