POLITICS: The Dems' 'WTF?' moment

By Jeremy Moule and Tim Macaluso on November 10, 2009

This was supposed to be the year: the Democrats were going to take control of the County Legislature, and they were going to increase their presence in the suburbs.

Instead, they lost control of Irondequoit, lost a supervisor's race in Mendon, and made no gains in the Lej. The party actually came closer to control of the Lej in 2007, says Democratic County Legislator Ted O'Brien, who wasn't up for election this year.

It all amounted to a big "What just happened?" moment for the party.

So here's the question: Does this election show that Democrats aren't relevant outside of the city and Brighton? And if they can't take the Legislature in this environment, when the Republican Party is at the center of multiple scandals, can they ever?

There's a good argument to be made that the GOP campaigns were more in touch with the concerns of the people: the economy and taxes. Democrats did focus on those issues, but perhaps not enough. They played up an oversight theme and highlighted county scandals, too, but given the state of the economy, those issues may not have resonated with voters as much.

Democrats say they have plenty to offer suburban voters. But O'Brien says they've realized they should have spent more time trying to establish that Republicans haven't necessarily been the best financial stewards.

"This is a setback, but it's not the end," says Sean Hart, a spokesperson for the County Democratic Committee.

Turnout certainly illustrated that something's wrong. Voters came out at near-record-low levels - 32 percent according to the County Board of Elections - and that could be indicative of fatigue, apathy, or cynicism. That, too, may have benefited the GOP, since the demographic groups most likely to vote also tend to be the same groups most likely to tilt Republican.

But it could be that Democrats everywhere were a victim of broader forces. There's a sense of disillusionment with both parties. Middle-class Americans and seniors see themselves as making all of the sacrifices while Washington bails out banks. They don't see justice.

Among speculators, there's been a tendency to blame the losses on that voter dissatisfaction - whether it's the economy and taxes, the state Democrats who've left voters disappointed, or the Obama administration and the Democratic Congress.

"I think there is a certain sort of natural instinct to create a check on parties in power," O'Brien says.

Results from other parts of the state, and from other states, bear that out. In Erie County, Democrats lost three Legislature seats. Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi, who's been a popular force behind property tax issues, is hanging on to his seat with the narrowest of leads, and may lose once all the outstanding ballots have been counted. Too, Democrats lost gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey.