There's a cautionary tale for Renaissance Square in the situation taking place at Nazareth College, says Mayor Bob Duffy.

Escalating materials costs, particularly the cost of steel, led Nazareth officials last week to temporarily halt $9 million worth of renovations to the college's arts center.

"It significantly raised the price from what the bid came in at," says Julie Long, a college spokeswoman.

The college now plans to retool its project.

That Nazareth is scaling back the renovations "is an alarm for Ren Square to proceed cautiously," Duffy says. What's happening at Nazareth is happening to major projects all over, he says.

Renaissance Square is a combined MCC campus, bus station, and theater planned for the corner of Main and Clinton downtown.

Planners have accounted for a potential 20 percent increase in materials costs, says project spokesman Mike Power. But it's too early to tell if that will be enough, he says, because construction is still a ways off and it's tough to predict steel or fuel prices.

"This is a cost-driven project," Power says. "If the costs escalate beyond what's already built in, then we're going to have to regroup and account for that because it's not going to go over $230 million."

Project officials have selected a preliminary design and their construction consultant, LeChase, has said it's doable for $230 million, Power says.

"LeChase is monitoring that constantly and keeping us aware of the price increases on everything from nails to concrete," Power says.

It's not just the materials that concern Duffy. The goals of the project are worthy ones, he says. And he supports the "big picture" of the project. But the fast ferry and Paetec Park have left lingering concerns in the public's mind about large public works projects.

"I think the biggest question is going to be operating costs," Duffy says. "It is inconceivable to ever think or say that there will be no deficit. There will be a substantial deficit for operating costs - in the theater alone. It will be seven figures. There's no way it could be less."

Operation cost projections for Renaissance Square are supposed to be complete by October.

Duffy also wants a clear picture of how much money can be raised toward the theater and he wants a backup plan in case that funding falls short. He doesn't want the project to start construction only to wind up with an empty lot where the theater would have been once it's discovered that the money isn't there.

"Can we reasonably expect to raise the money to build it? And that will be a stretch. But if we do that, can we afford to keep it open? I think we have to look at all those costs," Duffy says. "Given the controversy, being completely open is the only way to go. There should be no surprises with this project. "

On July 31, officials plan to submit Renaissance Square's environmental review to the Federal Transit Administration. The FTA will review the assessment and send it back to the project partners for comment. Only the final assessment will be available for public review. Project planners hope to have the FTA's final decision on the environmental reviewby February 2009.