The analyzing of Tuesday's victory for Massachusetts's new Republican Senator Scott Brown is in full swing.

The Democrats disarray is like an open-casket viewing.

We have White House spokesman Robert Gibbs trying to explain the president's response, which didn't match up at all to what Obama told ABC's George Stephanopoulos yesterday - that the Senate shouldn't try to rush the health-care bill through before Brown is seated in the Senate. Gibbs said that Democrats would find a way to get the bill passed.

It was a moment when reality gelled, reminiscent of Sen. John McCain's declaration that the economy was fine when all indicators were pointing to something else.

This is a watershed moment for Democrats, just like it was for McCain in his quest to become president.

It is an especially perilous time for Obama.

If you listen to interpretations of the exit polls and look at the map of Massachusetts districts that voted for Brown, it's pretty easy to imagine Ted Kennedy turning in his grave.

Independents and Dems alike voted in favor of a pro-abortion, anti-gay rights candidate who once posed nude for Cosmo, and ran on stopping the health-care bill. If Republicans can do it there, they can do it anywhere.

And even in defeat, many Dems just don't get it.

Obama deserves a lot of the blame. More than once he's said the buck stops with him.

Well, he's hit the jackpot.

He has either dragged his feet or reversed his position on many of his campaign pledges.

Committing more troops to Afghanistan and backing off the public option cost him his credibility. Independents haven't followed him down either road.

Giving Nebraska's Ben Nelson a blank check for his state's Medicare costs stunk, and Dems should have known better.

The issue now is whether Obama can herd his party together over anything - jobs, banking reform, or the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

He won't have much time to set a new course. And some Democratic seats in both sides of the House are probably going to be lost in the next two elections.

But if he doesn't quickly convince Americans he can govern, he won't even be able to save himself.