Before they get to who, they've got to figure out how.

It may be fun to speculate on who the next mayor might be, since barring a cataclysmic event Mayor Bob Duffy will almost certainly be elected lieutenant governor in November. But the fact is, local Democratic leaders are still trying to figure out what they need to do. And the clock is ticking.

The ball is in City Council's court. Council can appoint a successor for Duffy, or there could be a special election to find a new mayor. Council members haven't yet indicated which way they'll go.

A Council appointment would take office in January, if Duffy stays on until then, and then a new mayor would be elected in November 2011.

But Council President Lovely Warren has said publicly that she favors a special election. The winner of that election would serve the rest of Duffy's term, through 2013, and that, Warren says, would provide stability during a critical growth period for the city. Paetec, Midtown, transit center, and arts center projects are in various stages of planning and development.

A special election would also benefit the two members of Council who have expressed interest in being mayor. Council isn't allowed to appoint one of its own, but members can run in a special election.

The question no one seems to be able to answer, though, is who gets to choose the Democratic candidate in the event of a special election?

Some say county Democratic leader Joe Morelle, alone, gets to pick the candidate. Others say that it would be Morelle with the involvement of the Monroe County Democratic Committee. Adam Bello, executive director of the county Democratic Committee, says Democrats are still investigating the process.

The D&C quoted Morelle as saying he anticipates that a consensus candidate will emerge, meaning that such process questions are academic. Great, if that happens. But history suggests otherwise.

Whatever Democrats do, their decision needs to be as litigation-proof as possible. City Hall doesn't need a lingering vacancy in its top job while lawyers fight it out in court. Nor would it help the new mayor to enter office with his or her legitimacy in question.

Most everyone involved - Council members, Morelle, Bello - is downplaying the urgency of finding the next mayor. But there has to be at least some negotiating going on behind the scenes. It's not like Duffy steps down in January 2011 and Council looks around and says, "Well, what do we do now?"

Lots of people say they might run, but four names seem to surface most often: Council members Dana Miller and Elaine Spaull, former County Legislator Mitch Rowe, and city Deputy Fire Administrator Molly Clifford.

Energetic and ambitious, Spaull, though still relatively new, has quickly emerged as a leader on Council. She's affable and self-deprecating, which might cause people to underestimate her - a fact that Spaull seems to use to her advantage, intentionally or not.

Miller is thoughtful, intelligent, articulate, and more laid back than Spaull. He's not as accessible as I wish he'd be, though. In addition, as evidenced by a failed bid for Council president, Miller doesn't seem to have the necessary support from his fellow Council members. I have no doubt he'd be a hard-working, stabilizing force as mayor, but I think it'd be an uphill climb.

I had the chance to observe Rowe for only a short time, but he was honest, straightforward, and easy to reach. He's also the son of current Council member Carolee Conklin. No idea what that means. Just putting it out there.

Clifford's is the most interesting and arguably most audacious name being tossed around. And she says she's interested. I like Clifford a lot - I get a definite Joan Cusack vibe - but her appointment to fire department muckety-muck was blasted by critics charging cronyism. (Clifford is Duffy's former campaign manager and former head of the county Democratic Party.) When the mayoral control bomb exploded, picketers carried signs exclaiming "Molly Clifford for school superintendent!"

Can you imagine the outcry if Council appoints her mayor?

Clifford opposes a special election. Council should appoint someone, she says, and let the voters pick the next mayor in November. That's the most Democratic way to do things, she says. (Side note: representatives of the activist group Metro Justice are looking into the succession process and they, too, say they are inclined to oppose a special election.)

But a Clifford appointment or election might be a little off-putting, since she essentially just got the fire job. The RFD might be feeling like the prom date who was good enough until her escort discovered that the homecoming queen was free.

"The timing was not my choice," Clifford says.

She says she hopes the fire department would understand that the knowledge she gained from working there, even for such a short time, would benefit the department if she were mayor.

She's been involved in the community her entire life, Clifford says, and she wants to see the good work of the Duffy administration continue.