Unless somebody has a dramatic change of heart, Renaissance Square is dead.

When that began to sink in last weekend, my stomach did a little flip. Should city officials have killed the theater and insisted on a smaller bus station? Can we walk away from the $24 million - probably all $81 million - in federal funds promised for the project? Will developers swarm to that site, or will we be looking at the same sad streetscape 10 years from now?

But here's the thing: Even if Ren Square leaders raised enough money to build the theater, we'd be subsidizing it for the rest of its life. And if they couldn't raise enough money to build it? Our "renaissance" would be a relocated MCC facility and a long, wide hallway leading back to a really ordinary-looking bus station, with a lot of buses pulling in and out, right next to two historic, residential buildings to the north.

That's all.

Ren Square supporters have talked magnanimously about helping the city, using federal funds to raze dilapidated buildings and clear land for the Ren Square theater. If the theater wasn't built, they said, the city could have the land for private development. But there's a catch: the city would have to reimburse the feds for the demolition and clearance costs - $7 million is the Ren Square estimate. So assuming that the theater wasn't viable, the city risks nothing by taking control of that land now.

And frankly, I see a different kind of risk if Ren Square leaders got what they wanted: how many developers would want to build something right next to a really ordinary-looking, traffic-heavy bus station?

So. What should happen next?

Odds are, we'll get a new MCC facility. Everybody wants it, and the county already owns its site at Ren Square.

Rochester Broadway Theatre League leaders ought to put their efforts into making the Auditorium Theatre building into the state-of-the-art complex they wanted years ago. The Aud is a magnificent, landmark-quality building. And in addition to the main theater, it contains numerous other rooms and halls. It could become a true performing arts center.

As for the bus station: It doesn't have to be on Mortimer Street - and it shouldn't be. There are at least two better sites, maybe three:

Midtown. It's only a block off of Main Street. And it's closer to downtown employment centers like Xerox, the new ESL headquarters, and, we hope, Paetec.

Between Franklin Street and Liberty Pole Way, behind Citizens' Bank (formerly Rochester Savings Bank). Mark IV Construction Company, one of the region's bigger development firms, suggests using the ornate, landmark bank building as the entry, with buses circulating around what is now mostly vacant property north of the building. In the Mark IV plan, one-story, pod-like structures could be built - substantially cheaper than the Ren Square bus station - for retail shops and bus-related services.

The Amtrak station. Transit officials say that site won't work because it's too far from Main Street, the destination for many bus riders. But buses could still travel down Main Street. And many other bus riders simply transfer to other buses downtown. I'm not sure they care whether they transfer a block off of Main Street or over at the train tracks.

And this brings up the issue of bus routes. Despite dramatic changes in Greater Rochester over the past 30 years, the bus company funnels almost everything downtown. It's way past time for RGRTA to redesign its hub-and-spoke system.

Here's the blunt truth: If we were starting all over, we would never design the Ren Square project for that site. Maybe it met our needs 10 years ago, but it doesn't now.

We can still get an MCC campus, a bus station, and a performing arts center - in appropriate locations - if wise heads and even temperaments prevail. If not? Well, city officials are in control. Just as they should be.