As expected, Hillary Clinton won yesterday's West Virginia primary by a wide margin, but it'll still be a reach for her to become the Democrats' presidential nominee. The movement of superdelegates to Barack Obama has sped up, and even a strong Clinton showing next week in Kentucky may not stop it.
And so, some thoughts, while we wait out these last few weeks:
1) The Obama campaign absolutely must tell its troops to be nice. A blazing example of what not to do: On Sunday, Tennessee Representative Steve Cohen, an Obama supporter, compared Clinton to Glenn Close's "Fatal Attraction" character, a woman who clung to hopes of an affair with a man who was trying to end it.
Clinton and her supporters have certainly indulged in their own dirty tricks, but this is the very kind of politics that Obama says he's running against.
Just as important, Clinton is a strong candidate who has the right to continue to campaign until she is convinced that she must stop.
I think it's pretty clear that Obama will be the nominee, and I'm relieved. Not only is Clinton the weaker candidate, but she has done way too many things that make me nervous about a Clinton presidency. Her support for the Iraq invasion, a flag-burning amendment, a gas-tax holiday - her comment that if Iran attacked Israel, the US could "obliterate" Iran: this is not the president I want.
And I'm not comforted by the argument that Clinton has to seem tough to get elected. If she became president, the Republicans would be on the attack from her first day in office. And Clinton would figure she'd have to act tough to get re-elected.
But it's important for these last primaries to play out. It's been a long time since the Democratic candidate wasn't selected in the first few primaries and caucuses, and the candidates and the nation are learning important lessons from this lengthy season.
2) Obama should not pick Clinton as his vice presidential candidate. I've never figured out how this loopy idea got legs. Some naïve, idealistic Democrats seem to think an Obama-Clinton ticket would be perfect, that Clinton could bring in the Hispanic and working-class votes that have eluded Obama so far.
First of all, if Clinton is interested in the job, I'll be astonished. Settling for second best is so not her. The United States has had presidents and vice presidents who didn't get along in the past, but this match would be hair-raising. And not at all good for the country.
According to a Carl Bernstein report on CNN.com earlier this week, though, some Clinton supporters think that she'll fight to get on the ticket - and that he'll find it hard to resist the push. One Clinton supporter told Bernstein that Clinton will argue that Obama can't win unless she runs with him.
Can you picture Clinton - the Clintons - meekly following Obama's lead, sitting quietly in the background? Can you picture Obama giving Clinton meaningful duties? I'd bet that she'd have the knives out the moment they took office, with her eyes on the 2012 campaign.
Obama has plenty of other options (New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson among the strongest). This story isn't ending the way the Clinton wanted it to, but selecting her as vice president would be worse than weird. Not to mention very old-style politics.
3) Also making the rounds on the rumor network: that Obama might pay off Clinton's campaign debt if she withdraws from the race. Clinton will have no trouble paying off her debt. She took on that debt willingly, and she has a responsibility to pay it off. More important, though, is the message that an Obama paydown would send: that he bought her off. That's condescending to a bright woman and a tough campaigner. And it reeks of unethical, backroom deals.