I don't want to keep dumping on Renaissance Square. But things seem to happen with this project by default, and that's not good.

We started out with a plan for three theaters: large, medium, small. Officials decided the midsize theater wouldn't fit, and we were down to two. Downtown development plans mushroomed, the city wanted to keep the Mortimer Street Garage - a big piece of the Ren Square site - and poof! We were down to one theater.

As far as I can tell, there was no discussion about which theater we ought to have, if we could have only one. But we're getting the big one, by default.

And now? Sometime late this year, or early next, Ren Square officials will decide what to build at Ren Square - by default. If they can raise enough money to build a theater, we'll get one. And if not?

Ren Square officials say they have the money to build two of the three components: MCC and the bus station. They say they have $30 million in state and federal funds for the theater. And they seem optimistic that they can raise the additional $55 million they need for the theater.

They also worry that media focus on Ren Square's challenges will scare off potential donors. I appreciate that concern. But it's important to talk about those challenges.

One is scarce private funding. Ren Square isn't the only project looking for money right now. The University of Rochester is in the midst of a fund-raising campaign for the Eastman Theatre expansion. Every arts organization in the Rochester area can use more money. The Children's Zone is going to need big, big bucks. Is a big new theater our greatest need?

Ren Square officials know that raising $55 million from private donations is a stretch, so they're counting on some state money, too. They point to $18 million that they say the State Assembly promised for Ren Square a couple of years ago.

But Assembly member Joe Morelle says the $18 million was for several projects, including Ren Square and the Eastman Theatre. "It was never fully intended for Ren Square," Morelle told me last week.

And now that $18 million is gone, said Morelle, the bulk of it for the expansions at the Eastman Theatre and Nazareth Arts Center. Both, Morelle noted, will meet some of the needs that a mid-sized theater at Ren Square was to have met. (While Ren Square spokesperson Mike Power disagrees, Morelle says project officials know the money's gone.)

Morelle said the Assembly would be happy to entertain a new request from Ren Square "if they ever work out their design issues, come up with a realistic construction estimate and operating costs, and get some private philanthropic money." But there's no Assembly money waiting right now.

Ren Square officials are also talking about having MCC or the SUNY system own the theater and provide some money to build it. The justification: MCC would move its theater-arts program downtown, and its students would use the theater.

But there are just so many, many questions here. Was the big theater the best theater for Ren Square? If MCC or SUNY owns the theater, will taxpayers' money be diverted from education to subsidize the theater?

If there's not enough money for the theater, should we go ahead with the MCC campus and the bus station?

And: does downtown Rochester need Ren Square? A few years ago, it seemed to be about the only development hope we had. That's no longer true. Is it a good idea to build Ren Square, taking prime development land out of the private market - and taking that land off the tax roles?

I don't want us to miss an important development opportunity for downtown Rochester. But I also don't want us to put taxpayers' money - federal, state, and local- into the wrong project.

Is it too late to make these decisions by careful deliberation rather than by default?